My 2 thoughts from yesterday:
1. Appropriate value bets and analysis of an opponents hand separates good players from great.
2. Bet sizing on all streets according to stack size and pot size is also crucial to success in both tourneys and cash games.
Further thoughts on the first are this:
I believe that almost all player would agree that pro players do ONE thing better than avg to good players, maybe even most great players. That ONE thing is their ability to read people. This often is only talked about when reading a bluff or reading a tell that indicates someone has the nuts. I believe the most profitable way that pros are able to read other players above both of these is when analyzing the strength of an opponents hand in order to determine the size of a “value bet” on the river, or even on all three streets. This more than anything I believe separates good from great.
For example:
A hand from one of the 180 player tourneys I played in recently. Early in the tourney, all players start with 15oo in chips blinds at 25/50 Player UTG limps, folds to me in the cutoff with AdTd I also limp trying to not induce a re-raise with a large pair. Button folds, small blind and big blind call. 4 players to the flop. Flop comes out T47 rainbow. Checks to UTG limper who bets $100 into the $200 pot. At this point I’m not convinced my T is good but am interested to see what follows. I smooth call, both blinds fold. Turn is a Qc and the UTG player quickly checks, I’m now convinced the player has either 88, 99, or JJ only one of these hands scares me. For pot control I simply check this will allow me to evaluate the players action on the river as well as keep the pot at a level I can call a bet on the river without risking a huge portion of my stack. The river is a 2 completing no straights, and not flush draws. The player UTG again quickly checks, I am not thoroughly convince the player has 88, or 99. The pot size is $400 after the flop betting.
This is where I believe the pros are best at extracting extra value out of their opponent. To often I see a player bet the pot at this point and the UTG player mucking their hand. I believe this is costly to a players stack.
I choose to bet $150 into the pot giving the player 3 1/3 : 1 pot odds to call. Player thinks for a while and calls with 99. Could I have gotten $200? Even $175? These are the things that make a big difference. Even the extra $150 gained on the river is 10% of the starting stack and an extra 3bb. This can go a long way to making a deep run in a tournament.
Do I have all of this figured out, not even close. Do I think I’m getting better yes, do I think it’s improving my game, IMMENSELY!
For thoughts on my 2nd point from yesterday I have just chose to quote Daniel Negreanu from his recent blog that can be found here ( http://tinyurl.com/2umobsd ) What caught my attention was his analysis of bet sizing according to both stack size and pot size, and how he was thinking one step ahead. Like a good chess player, because when it comes down to it poker can really be a game of chess.
From there I picked up a little momentum and actually built my stack up to about 80,000. Then a very interesting hand came up. I raised to 1375 (blinds 300-600) with 6d 7d and a tough, young, internet player called me in position. It folded around to the big blind who re-raised to a total of 4600. I counted his stack and it seemed like he was deep enough for me to make the call in position. I called. The internet kid paused for a while and eventually called. I put him on a suited connector type hand or a small pair looking to win a big pot, but I put the big blind on a big pair or AK. I felt really good about where I was at and my read of the situation.
The flop came Ac Qc 2h and the big blind insta checked. When he did, I was convinced he had KK or JJ and that this was a great spot to pick up the pot since I felt like it was very unlikely that the internet kid would hit this flop. I bet 6500 and the internet called. The big blind, frustrated, folded what appeared to be KK.
The turn came the 8s. Now, I have nothing but there is a lot I can represent. I could easily have any of the following hands: AK, AQ, QQ, 22. I felt like my opponents most likely holding was either a flush draw, or possibly a weaker suited ace, maybe even something like A-10 suited. I felt like he may fold an ace to another bet, and he’d call with flush draws. If he calls me on the turn, I need to have enough chips to be able to make a reasonable sized bet on the river without crippling my stack if I was wrong and he was calling me down with an Ace. I elected to bet 13,500. He thought for a while, looked like he may want to raise me and for a second I thought he may have a hand like Jc 10c which would be a big draw. Finally he called. The river came the 3c and at this point I didn’t think I could buy the pot. I mean, I put the guy on the flush draw so I felt like I had to give up and protect my 45,000 stack. I checked, and he moved all in.
So either he was turning his Ace into a bluff, or he actually made the flush. Either way I had 7-high and obviously couldn’t do anything about it anymore. I’m still interested to see what would have happened if the river was NOT a club. I probably would have bet something like 17,500. No need for a much bigger bet since if he missed clubs he’d probably fold and if he has an Ace he’d be almost as likely to call 17,500 as he would 25,500.
